Thanks to CM for the pointer to Andrew Odylzko’s predictions for the next Internet decade. They include:
Many of the old battles over issues such as QoS or ﬂat rate vs. usage-based pricing, as well as the on-going one over net-neutrality, are likely to be fought again in the wireless arena. It is possible that some outcomes might be diﬀerent this time. The reason is that the balance between supply and demand is diﬀerent. In the wireline arena, the growth in demand is still high, but it has been declining, to a level that is currently just about counterbalanced by improvements in technology. This produces incentives for service providers to increase usage, and such incentives suggest simple pricing and simple networks. In wireless, on the other hand, growth in data transmission appears to be signiﬁcantly ahead of what technology can support, at least without major increases in levels of capital expenditure. And the incentives to raise investments are lacking, since most of the large potential sources of new wireless data transmissions are not anywhere near as lucrative as voice and texting. Users would like seamless mobility, but the huge gap between capacities of ﬁber and radio links is unlikely to allow this. So service providers will have strong incentives to closely manage their network traﬃc, and are likely to try to ration capacity and discriminate among applications and among service providers.
Last month we held a small workshop in Brussels to draw on the knowledge of a number of external experts for the project. Here is a short report of the event — all comments welcome!
September 2009 Brussels workshop report
As promised, here are the second and third parts of our state of the art report on Internet development. Almost done now, but still open to your thoughts and comments.
State of the Art report part 2
State of the Art report part 3
We’ve been making progress on our state-of-the-art report on the development of the Internet, and how we got here — as a means to help us understand where we are going next. Here is part 1 of the report. Parts 2 and 3 will be coming over the next week. All comments welcome!
Start of the Art report part 1
I spoke last week at a European Commission event where I give a brief introduction to our project. You can browse the slides below.
The MIC (Ministry of Interior and Communications) of Japan released recent data on broadband services in Japan.
It says that there were 30.11 million broadband subscribers at the end of December, 2008, and the number of FTTH subscribers was 14.42 million, while DSL is declining.
Last March Nikkei (Nihon Keizai Shinbun) reported that NTT East will invest 75 billion yen (around 76 million US dollars) to NGN (Next Generation Networks) in fisical year 2009. NTT-E is planning to match its optic fiber service area with NGN cover area in order to raise demands both for optic fiber service and NGN, which are slowing down these days.
NTT East and West (they are main regional operators in Japan) are aggressive to deploy both of the services, but their goals are hard to reach.
Japanese government’s study group published an interim report on ICT vision.
English Press Release
Japanese Press Release
The final version of the report will be published in June this year.
The PARADISO project has now published an updated version of their reference document to reflect their conference discussions in January on ICT for a global sustainable future. You can comment at their website:
This document further develops the PARADISO vision and explores a new concept of progress that developed, emerging, and developing countries might share, aiming at a true sustainable development, a more sustainable economic growth, more equally shared resources, and eventually the well-being of peoples around the world, measured through a new index related to the progress of societies. The document also investigates the role that ICT can play in the hypothesis of such global societal developments, and derives the strategic research areas that can usefully be explored in the short term in order that suited solutions can be made available in the future.
Information Society Commissioner Viviane Reding has followed up the forthright comments on privacy last week from Consumer Affairs Commissioner Meglena Kuneva. In a video message she makes the following comments:
“European privacy rules are crystal clear: a person’s information can only be used with their prior consent. We cannot give up this basic principle, and have all our exchanges monitored, surveyed and stored in exchange for a promise of ‘more relevant’ advertising! I will not shy away from taking action where an EU country falls short of this duty.”
Reding added that RFID chips would work only “if they are used by the consumer and not on the consumer. No European should carry a chip in one of their possessions without being informed precisely what they are used for, with the choice to remove or switch it off at any time.”
Mrs Reding also is concerned by social network sites:
“Privacy must in my view be a high priority for social networking providers and their users. I firmly believe that at least the profiles of minors must be private by default and unavailable to internet search engines. The European Commission has already called on social networking sites to deal with minors’ profiles carefully, by means of self-regulation. I am ready to follow this up with new rules if I have to.”
To round off this flurry of activity, the Commission launched the first phase of proceedings against the UK for “several problems with the UK’s implementation of EU ePrivacy and personal data protection rules, under which EU countries must ensure, among other things, the confidentiality of communications by prohibiting interception and surveillance without the user’s consent.” The UK now has two months to respond, before potentially being taken to the European Court of Justice.